Every Brexit Scenario Costs British Treasury Tens of Billions per Year. Each of the four scenarios used by the UK Government for the (UK) exit from the European Union (EU) will cost the British taxpayer’s tens of billions of euros per year, reports the Forbes News.
The researchers calculated that the scenario favoured by the government of Prime Minister Theresa May, a custom trade agreement with the EU, the British Treasury would cost about £ 40 billion annually.
With two of the three other scenarios, even higher costs are involved. A free trade agreement similar to that between Canada and the EU will cost EUR 66 billion annually.
If there is no trade agreement and the UK ended up trading with the EU, according to the rules of World Trade Organization, it will cost about 94 billion euros annually.
With the least expensive option, a scheme à la Norway, the Treasury is missing approximately 20 billion euros on an annual basis.
The Norwegians have a free trade agreement with the EU, and must comply with European economic rules, but are not part of the customs union.
House of Commons
The investigation comes at an unpropitious time for the May government. The British House of Commons discusses Monday the plan to remove the UK from the European customs union.
Nine parliamentarians from Mays own Conservative Party joined the opposition in calling on the Prime Minister to abandon that intention.
It is likely that the House of Commons will vote to give its say in the customs union issue. That means a defeat for May unless she can avoid the vote by making considerable concessions.